The Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable

Dated: April 23 2020

Views: 15

Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable

Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable | MyKCM

Earlier this week, we discussed how most projections from financial institutions are calling for a quick V-shaped recovery from this economic downturn, and there’s research on previous post-pandemic recoveries to support that expectation.

In addition, we noted how there are some in the business community who believe we may instead be headed for a U-shaped recovery, where the return to previous levels of economic success won’t occur until the middle of next year. Yesterday, Reuters released a poll of U.S. and European economists which revealed that most surveyed are now leaning more toward a U-shaped recovery.

Here are the results of that poll:Uncertainty Abounds in the Search for Economic Recovery Timetable | MyKCM

Why the disparity in thinking among different groups of economic experts?

The current situation makes it extremely difficult to project the future of the economy. Analysts normally look at economic data and compare it to previous slowdowns to create their projections. This situation, however, is anything but normal.

Today, analysts must incorporate data from three different sciences into their recovery equation:

1. Business Science – How has the economy rebounded from similar slowdowns in the past?

2. Health Science – When will COVID-19 be under control? Will there be another flareup of the virus this fall?

3. Social Science – After businesses are fully operational, how long will it take American consumers to return to normal consumption patterns? (Ex: going to the movies, attending a sporting event, or flying).

The challenge of accurately combining the three sciences into a single projection has created uncertainty, and it has led to a wide range of opinions on the timing of the recovery.

Bottom Line

Right now, the vast majority of economists and analysts believe a full recovery will take anywhere from 6-18 months. No one truly knows the exact timetable, but it will be coming.

Blog author image

Nanci Gilbert, PA

Nanci strives to provide every client with a smooth and worry-free experience when it comes to buying and selling real estate. In an industry that can move very quickly, she prides herself on taking t....

Latest Blog Posts

Real Estate Continues to Show Unprecedented Strength

Real Estate Continues to Show Unprecedented Strength This YearThe 2020 housing market has surpassed all expectations and continues to drive the nation’s economic recovery. The question,

Read More

Prepare for a Bidding War

How to Prepare for a Bidding WarSome HighlightsWith so few houses available on the market today, being ready for a bidding war is essential for prospective homebuyers.From pre-approval to making

Read More

Do You Need to Know More about Forbearance and Mortgage Relief Options

Do You Need to Know More about Forbearance and Mortgage Relief Options?Earlier this year when the nation pressed pause on the economy and unemployment rates jumped up significantly, many homeowners

Read More

Reason #1 Not to Wait to List Your House for Sale

The #1 Reason Not to Wait to List Your House for SaleMany industries have been devastated by the economic shutdown caused by the COVID-19 virus. Real estate is not one of them.Mark,&

Read More